“Generally, a fall of fifty feet or more will kill almost anyone.” This is what my rappelling instructor told me. Although I had been a rock climber since I was a young adult, I was in my mid-forties when I began rappelling. Together with good friends I rappelled off cliffs and even buildings. I actually was able to participate in a seasonal event associated with the Christmas holiday in downtown Cincinnati by rappelling off a building with others dressed as Santa, Reindeer, and an Elf.
Although my rappel master specified fifty feet, tree arborists cite thirty feet as the cutoff for fatality in a fall. That is, most people who fall from thirty feet or higher die. Even if you land on your feet and have the leg strength to soak up the force of the landing, you are still going to break bones or suffer internal injuries.
According to the World Health Organization, “Globally, falls are a major public health problem. An estimated 684,000 fatal falls occur each year, making it the second leading cause of unintentional injury death, after road traffic injuries.”1
Gravity causes any object in free fall to accelerate. The standard value is 980.665 centimeters per second per second (so-called “g force”). Acceleration increases proportional to the square root of the height of the fall, but directly proportional to time. If you fall for one second you reach the speed of 32 feet per second. If you fall for two seconds your acceleration will reach 64 feet per second.
As you are falling it is gravity that causes your acceleration to go faster and faster the longer you fall. Once you have fallen approximately 450 meters you have reached terminal velocity. This means you will not fall any faster. Any height above 450 meters means your survivability is unaltered. Rock climbers know that once you get over a certain height, you’re not going to survive a fall anyway. (This, strangely, gives them courage.)
Point: Fifty feet is the “red line” of falling. One reason for this is the design of our bodies. We are built top heavy. At a certain height, we will end up landing upside down. On our heads.
Application: Climbers use unusual caution when operating at heights above fifty feet. Climbers often use a top rope. Rappelers double- and triple-check harnesses.
Red Line
We use the term “red line” when describing behavior that has become unacceptable. Additionally, a “red line” is the “fastest, farthest, or highest point or degree considered safe.”2 Beyond the red line, it is hard to recover.
For life on planet earth, there are red lines in every direction, and for all activities. Consider the National Football League (NFL). When a game comes down to the last two minutes, there is a differential in team scores that presents a red line.
On November 27, 1966, the Washington Redskins scored 72 points versus the Giants. That is the most points scored by any team in NFL history. But it took them four quarters of play (sixty minutes) to achieve that score.
On December 8, 2013, however, the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens met in Baltimore and played an amazing game in snow and cold. With two minutes and five seconds to go, Minnesota was leading Baltimore 12 to 7. The two teams combined for over 20 points in the final two minutes of regulation and scored five touchdowns in the last two minutes and five seconds! There were six lead changes in the fourth quarter. In one of the craziest finishes in NFL history, Baltimore would defeat Minnesota by the score of 29-26.
Point: The red line in the NFL for overcoming a point deficit in the last two minutes of a game is two touchdowns. Rarely can a team score 14 points more than their opponent in the last two minutes of regulation.
Application: Anticipating that they might find themselves behind in the score near the end of a game, NFL teams practice the two-minute drill. They become more aggressive in their play calling. They make better use of the clock. They use the sidelines. They increase the tempo of play. They deploy rarely used onside kicks and trick plays.
Red Lines in Financial Services
In financial services we work with people and their money. Because time is fleeting, and money is finite, red lines arise in many situations.
Red Line Example #1, Pre-Retirement Period
The transition from earning an income (and setting aside savings and investments) to drawing an income from accumulated net worth is a major change. For all people invested in the markets, a crash is an emotionally stressful event. This is particularly true for retirees and pre-retirees.
For anyone soon to retire, a prolonged stock market downturn could affect their retirement plans. A person’s investment portfolio tends to be largest near retirement, in anticipation of drawing down income. If retirement income is dependent on taking withdrawals from a stock portfolio (within an IRA, 401k, or other qualified plan), and the market suffers a downturn, the prospective retiree faces two consequences:
- When stock prices are low, more shares must be sold in order to generate the same amount of income anticipated before the downturn.
- Selling stocks in the portfolio in a bad market can permanently undermine the ability to participate in market rebounds.
Volatility is when markets go up and down over time. For younger investors, market volatility is a nuisance. For someone about to retire, or newly retired, volatility can be very damaging to the plans for sustainable income.
Between October, 2007, and November, 2008, the Dow Jones lost more than 40 percent. Assets in defined contribution plans and IRAs lost about 30 percent of their value in that same period. If left untouched by withdrawals, those funds recovered over the next few years. These eventual gains were available to pre-retirees who continued to work longer than they had intended, reduced their spending, or had other sources of income that allowed them to postpone taking withdrawals.
The red line for pre-retirees is the amount of income they can derive from other assets (cash, etc.) if the value of their securities declines due to a market adjustment.
The best way to avoid selling price-depressed assets is to prepare in advance. Knowing that the invested assets will be needed soon for income, it is wise to hold “the equivalent of at least a year’s worth of anticipated withdrawals in cash investments—such as checking or savings accounts, money market funds or certificates of deposit (CDs)—with another two to four years’ worth in relatively liquid, conservative investments such as short-term Treasuries and other high-quality bonds or short-term bond funds.”3
“A four-year cushion should be enough to help you manage your risk in most bear markets. According to research by the Schwab Center for Financial Research, from the 1960s through 2021, the average peak-to-peak recovery time for a diversified index of stocks in bear markets was about three and a half years.”4
Point: The five years prior to retirement are the equivalent of the final two minutes in a football game. Just as it is improbable for an NFL team to overcome a two-touchdown deficit in the last two minutes, it is extremely difficult for someone to regain the growth curve of an asset portfolio if the market suffers a downturn in the few years leading up to retirement.
Applications:
- Clients need to prepare for market downturns in the years leading up to retirement by accumulating one to four years’ worth of income in conservative, liquid, safe, cash-like accounts.
- Some independent financial professionals (IFPs) urge their clients to deploy an Age-Based Asset Allocation model based on the fact that a person’s age dictates the amount of risk that is reasonable to take on. One model subtracts the person’s age from 100 and the result is the percentage of stock that person should retain in the portfolio. Someone age 40 should have 60 percent invested in stocks. Conversely, someone age 60 should have 40 percent invested in stocks. Preservation of capital replaces risk tolerance as the objective.
Red Line Example #2, The Retirement Years
Many people who retire are unaware of the risk that can steal huge amounts of potential income. This is the “sequence of returns” risk.
Down markets can pose significant sequence of returns risk in the early years of retirement. The risk has to do with the order, or sequence, of stock returns over time, combined with investment portfolio withdrawals, and the impact on the retirement savings.
Here’s how a sequence of returns risk can impact retirement savings: Say a person retires at age 65 with $1 million invested in stocks and securities with the goal of withdrawing $40,000 each year. If at the outset of this person’s retirement the portfolio is subject to a bear market, and loses 30 percent of its value, more shares of stock than anticipated will need to be sold in order for the $40,000 income goal to be achieved. Also, when the market rebounds, the sold shares are gone and no future gain is available.
However, if the order of yearly returns is reversed and the bear market happens much later, toward the end of the person’s life, the downturn might be offset by growth of the portfolio’s value in the intervening years.
The red line for retirees is not the specific returns over time but the order of those returns.
Point: IFPs must help their clients prepare for retirement in more ways than just accumulating necessary funds. They must also help clients plan for withdrawing funds from other sources in down markets.
Applications:
IFPs can help their clients combat the sequence of returns risk in these ways:
- First, by urging clients to spend more conservatively during down markets because the less they have to withdraw the less the impact on the portfolio overall.
- Second, IFPs can recommend products like permanent life insurance which build tax-deferred cash values that avail the policyowner the ability to withdraw funds that are potentially income-tax-free so that, in down market years, the retirement investments are not sold at decreased prices and can rebound as the markets recover.
- Third, the IFP can make sure clients know where they stand in terms of retirement income readiness, and therefore give clients some control over the date of their retirement.
- The IFP can urge clients to factor in withdrawal sequencing with their Social Security start date.
Summary
A red line is the fastest, farthest, or highest point or degree considered safe, beyond which it is hard to recover.
Red line injuries from falling cannot be blamed on gravity. Injuries arise from lack of caution and the failure to invest time and effort in proper preparation.
NFL teams that find themselves losing by more than two touchdowns (the red line) in the final two minutes of regulation cannot always overcome the failures of the previous 58 minutes of play.
Red lines face us in every aspect of life, including in our financial lives.
The IFP serves best when clients know what to do, if and when a market crash happens, either in the pre-retirement years or during retirement. Market corrections often force investors to sell securities that have lost significant value, and the impact on long-term growth snowballs.
IFPs can help clients protect themselves and their money by preparing a rational, well documented plan. The plan should specify, in advance, exactly what the client will do if a market downturn happens. Market corrections are emotional and stressful events. The hardest part of a market crash is sticking to the plan and not selling in a panic.
Clients who sell their stocks at a market low cannot recover. If a plan is in place that anticipates a downturn, and the clients hold onto price-depressed securities, these securities will likely regain their pre-crash positions.
Albert Einstein wrote, “You can’t blame gravity for falling in love.”
Similarly, you cannot blame market downturns for failure to plan. IFPs can help their clients plan and prepare for the red line risks of pre-retirement, or mid-retirement, market crashes.
Footnotes:
- https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/falls.
- https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/redline.
- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/a-lasting-market-downturn-can-be-big-risk-early-in-your-retirement.html.
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/market-volatility-retirement-what-if-you-havent-prepared.
Going To Extremes With Impossible Schemes
March 4th is famously known as the only calendar date that is also a military command. It just so happened that I attended the 105th birthday party for a WWII veteran on March 4, 2022.
“And if you should survive to a hundred and five
Look at all you’ll derive out of bein’ alive
And here is the best part, you have a head start
If you are among the very young at heart.”1
Robert Henry Doolan was born on March 22, 1917, in Cincinnati’s West End. He graduated from St. Xavier High School in 1935. The attack on Pearl Harbor inspired him to enlist in the Army Air Corps in 1941, and he graduated as a second lieutenant navigator the following year.
First Lieutenant Doolan served his country during WWII in the Army Air Corps as a member of the 326th Bomb Squadron, 92nd bomb group.
During his 13th mission as a navigator on a B-17 Flying Fortress, German fighter planes shot him down, forcing him to emergency-land in Holland. Doolan and another airman, co/pilot Donald Elbert Weir, spent 21 days attempting to escape back to England, shifting between safe houses, with aid from the Dutch resistance before being captured. As they entered the safe house door in Rotterdam, Doolan and Weir were knocked unconscious by members of Schutzstaffel, a Nazi paramilitary organization. They were gagged and handcuffed. Bob told me, “They push you here, they push you there, with a gun on your back all the time.” Upon capture they were taken to a prison camp.
He spent two years in the Stalag Luft III prison camp which was made famous by the 1963 film The Great Escape. (To read the thrilling actual history of the real escape visit this: https://www.history.com/news/great-escape-wwii-nazi-stalag-luft-iii).
Of his time in the prisoner of war camp, he had few things to say by way of complaint. “You miss the most what you miss that day,” Doolan said. “Obviously you miss your family or a sweetheart, but if you get hungry enough, you don’t think about anything else but food.”2
“Doolan was evacuated from the camp with other POWs in January, 1945, by the Germans, to avoid the Soviet Red Army, where they were marched and moved by horse carts and train cars to a new camp at Moosburg, Germany. The Moosburg prison camp was liberated by General George Patton and Doolan returned to the United States in 1945.”3
When Doolan returned home to Cincinnati, he married Dolores Ann Abbott. They raised three children. Doolan graduated from the University of Cincinnati with a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering. Doolan and Dolores were married 71 years. She died in 2017.
Back on March 4, 2022, myself and fifty or more people gathered to celebrate Bob Doolan’s 105th birthday. Being “young at heart” he entertained us with stories and song. He heartedly sang these lyrics:
“Fairy tales can come true
It can happen to you if you’re young at heart
For it’s hard, you will find
To be narrow of mind if you’re young at heart.”4
(To hear Robert Doolan tell his own story here is a link to an interview he gave on his 100th birthday: https://www.wvxu.org/history/2017-03-08/local-veteran-former-pow-robert-doolan-turns-100-this-month-and-shares-his-wwii-stories#stream/)
After the war Doolan was awarded with these commendations: Air Medal with clusters, Air Offensive Europe, European Theater Operations with Battle Star and Purple Heart with cluster.
Against the Odds
Alistair Begg wrote, “The ultimate statistic is that one out of one will die. Death is the only certainty of life.”5
Only 14 out of 1,000 80-year-old men will live to 100. Only three percent of men currently 60 years of age will live to age 100.
The International Database on Longevity (IDL) was created “to gather demographic information on those who have lived to a validated age of 105 years or over, opening the door to accurate measurement of mortality at very old ages.”6
“Jeanne Louise Calment lived for 122 years and 164 days, the oldest verified age of any person, ever. Her interviews revealed a portrait of the centenarian in high spirits: ‘I’ve only ever had one wrinkle, and I’m sitting on it,’ she told reporters when she turned 110. Calment died in 1997 in Arles, France, where she spent much of her impressively long life. No one else, according to accurate records, has lived beyond 120 years.”7
The number of men able to escape from Stalag Luft III were 76, of which only three made it to safety. Poor odds. Although he was not included in the escape plans, Robert Dooley was a survivor. He survived twelve successful missions, a plane crash, multiple prisoner of war camps, forced marches, and 105 years of living.
People who are alive between the ages of 105 and 109 are known as “semi-supercentenarians.” Researchers at UC Berkeley and Sapienza University of Rome tracked the deaths of nearly 4,000 residents of Italy who were aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015. “They found that the chances of survival for these longevity warriors plateaued once they made it past 105.”8
Specifically, the results revealed that people between the ages of 105 and 109 had a 50/50 chance of dying within the year and an expected further life span of 1.5 years. These percentages did not change between 105 and 110.
The researchers drew the following conclusion:
“Our data tell us that there is no fixed limit to the human lifespan yet in sight,” said study senior author Kenneth Wachter, a UC Berkeley professor emeritus of demography and statistics. “Not only do we see mortality rates that stop getting worse with age, we see them getting slightly better over time.”9
Huh.
Everyone in that study has since passed. Not one person’s life expectancy got better over time. As for Robert Dooley, he died on October 5, 2022, six months after his 105th birthday.
Impossible Schemes
The certainty of mortality is the predicate of life insurance.
Throughout my career in financial services, I have heard some critics of the life insurance industry express their opinion that there are better ways of taking financial responsibility for your family than owning an individual term, or permanent life insurance policy.
Here are some suggested alternatives to life insurance:
Summary:
There really is no substitute for individually owned life insurance.
“Life insurance covers all causes of death, with one main exception: Suicide within the first two years of owning the policy. Apart from that exclusion, life insurance covers death from illness, disease, accidents, and homicide.”10
Life insurance gives responsible people the means to prove they are dependable to their lives’ dependents.
“Life insurance is a key element in feeling financially secure. Among insureds with financial dependents, 68 percent feel secure, compared with 47 percent of non-insureds.”11
The nonprofit Life Happens (formerly the Life and Health Insurance Foundation for Education) recommends that as an independent financial professional you should share with your clients these very good reasons for purchasing a life insurance policy soon:
At 105, Robert Dooley sang:
“You can go to extremes with impossible schemes
You can laugh when your dreams fall apart at the seams
And life gets more exciting with each passing day
And love is either in your heart or on its way.”13
There are 41 million people in the U.S. who say they need life insurance but do not have it. If you are an independent financial professional, pledge yourself to the following:
If Robert Dooley were alive today, he would sing this to your clients:
“Don’t you know that it’s worth
Every treasure on earth to be young at heart
For as rich as you are
It’s much better by far to be young at heart.”14
My translation:
Don’t you know that it’s worth
Every treasure on earth to be prepared
from the start
For as rich as you are
It’s much better by far to prove your heart.
Footnotes: