Tuesday, April 23, 2024
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Charlie Gipple, CFP, CLU, ChFC

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Charlie Gipple, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, is the owner of CG Financial Group, one of the fastest growing annuity, life, and long term care IMOs in the industry. Gipple’s passion is to fill the educational void left by the reduction of available training and prospecting programs that exist for agents today. Gipple is personally involved with guiding and mentoring CG Financial Group agents in areas such as conducting seminars, advanced sales concepts, case design, or even joint sales meetings. Gipple believes that agents don’t need “product pitching,” they need mentorship, technology, and somebody to pick up the phone… Gipple can be reached by phone at 515-986-3065. Email: cgipple@cgfinancialgroupllc.com.

Why “Overfund” A Life Insurance Policy?

As my company trains scores of financial professionals every month on permanent life insurance, we always observe common questions and misperceptions that warrant a column or two. Lately I have observed some common questions around how to illustrate IUL, how to optimize the death benefits, and how to optimize the product offering based on the clients’ goals–whether the goals are death benefit focused or cash value focused. Let’s discuss.

Because indexed universal life insurance provides premium flexibility as well as death benefit flexibility, there are many objectives a consumer can have that drives the purchase of an indexed universal life insurance policy. However, the two broad categories are:

1. Death Benefit Objective: Small Premiums/Big Death Benefit
The first objective is to pay as little in premium as possible in order to get a desired death benefit, usually the larger the better. Some IUL policies have a death benefit that is guaranteed for a certain number of years assuming the consumer pays the “minimum no-lapse” premiums. There are even some IUL policies out there that have lifetime no-lapse guarantees! Lastly, some policies have essentially no guarantees that run only as long as the cash value can support the internal charges. Of course, just like anything else, the more guarantees, the higher the expenses (generally).

For just the death benefit need there can be lower cost insurance options than IUL, such as term life insurance or guaranteed universal life–”Perm Term” as I call it. However, with indexed universal life insurance consumers may choose to pay higher premiums because it provides the death benefit protection they desire but also the ability to accumulate cash value that can be accessed for various reasons such as: Emergencies, education expenses, retirement funds, etc.

2. Cash Value Objective: Large Premiums/Minimum Death Benefit
If the death benefit products that I discussed previously are the golfer’s equivalent of the “putter,” then this category is the “driver.” This is usually the opposite—you cram in as much premium as possible for as little of a death benefit as possible.

This objective is usually referred to as “max-funding” or “overfunding.” I prefer the term max-funding because over-funding just sounds like you are doing something incorrect.

Anyway, a large majority of industrywide IUL sales are bought with this objective in mind. For consumers that have this objective, they have a life insurance need but also have a very strong focus on cash value growth and minimizing the cost of insurance charges. The goal is usually to generate enough cash value in the policy so that they can take loans against the policy—that are generally tax free.

Why Overfund a Life Insurance Policy?
The notion of putting more premium into a life insurance policy than is necessary seems very counterintuitive to consumers. Here is a quick story on this topic.

I was recently on a call with one of my agents (and friends) in California helping him as he discussed IUL with one of his clients. This was the second meeting with this client who was already well versed on the topic of IUL and was likely going to move forward with it outside of a couple of final clarifying questions. This was a high net worth 45-year-old male client that was maxing out his 401k plan, had done very well with other investments and now was looking for an “alternative asset” that was more on the conservative side. He also wanted an asset that he can turn into a stream of retirement income in 20 years. He had an additional $10,000 per year that he wanted to put to work.

This was the perfect client for IUL as he understood the power of potentially tax-free loans, living benefits and, most important, he also understood that his current life insurance coverage was on the “lean” side.

The call was going quite well, as the agent did a great job answering all the questions the client had except for one question where he got tripped up. What was that question? We will get there in a bit. But first, here is the question that I thought the agent did a great job with. The question from the client was, “Why minimize the death benefit? If I have a choice between having more death benefit coverage or less death benefit coverage for the same premium, why would I go with the less?”

This is a great question and not the first time I have heard this question from a client or an agent. Thus, the reason for this article! It is a reasonable question because if IUL is a “flexible premium product” and if the client could possibly pay the same premium for a little higher death benefit, why wouldn’t he? Can he have his cake and eat it too?

The agent responded to that question with an answer that I thought was very well articulated. He said, “By minimizing the death benefit relative to the cash value we are able to keep the internal charges in the policy down, which allows for the product to accumulate more cash at a faster rate.”

This answer is very accurate because, as you know, the cost of insurance charges are assessed on the net amount at risk. To discuss this topic briefly with you, I thought I would include the following diagrams that I had previously trained this agent (and many others) to use.

In short, if you can keep the red cash value line and the green death benefit line as close to each other as possible, then, all else being equal, the COI charges will be minimized. That is because the COI factors are based on the net amount at risk. The IRS regulates how low the death benefit can go relative to the premium and cash value with Guideline Premium rules and Seven-Pay rules.

Pay close attention to where I have the death benefits starting for each respective death benefit option. Note that in most cases the “Option 2 (Increasing) Death Benefit” will allow for the death benefit to start out much lower than the “Option 1 (Level) Death Benefit.” Furthermore, if you look at the diagrams, the Option 2 Death Benefit has the smallest gap in the beginning years and the Option 1 has the smallest gap in the later years.

So, if one is better in the early years and the other is better in the later years, which option do we typically go with? Both! That is exactly why you see many IUL illustrations starting out at Option 2 but then switching to Option 1 after the premiums stop going in. You get to use the optimal option for both sides of the time spectrum.

The Tougher Question
Now, what about the question I mentioned that my agent (and friend) tripped on a little bit? It was this question: “If I want a higher death benefit than the ‘minimum death benefit’ on this product, should we do the higher death benefit?”

In essence, the client wanted more death benefit than the $231k that was the “minimum death benefit” on this product but yet he also liked the accumulation potential to be as high as possible on the IUL. Can he have a golf club that can be a good putter and also a good driver? What route should he go? What did the agent recommend? To be continued…

How Do Politicians Get Elected?

First off, my goal is to make this so non-political that, by the end of this column, you will not know whether I am a Democrat or a Republican. So if you read the title of this article expecting to witness a train wreck below you can rest easy. I hope. And yes, I am fully cognizant that bringing up politics is almost as dangerous as telling my friend, Steve Howard, that I am not a Chiefs fan! Actually, I do like the Chiefs.

The purpose of this article is to merely take learnings from a group of folks (politicians) who deal with numbers of people that dwarf the numbers of people we work with and apply those learnings to your business. In other words, with political elections you have the “Law of Large Numbers” which makes for a very interesting litmus test on how to interact with the public, i.e. our prospective clients.

The Brain
There are two different ways that our brain processes information—one way is the analytical or conscious way, and the other is the emotional or subconscious way.

I have read several books on how humans make decisions and they all explain these two different thinking types in a different way. The book Storyselling for Financial Advisors explains the brain functionality as left brain versus right brain. Basically, if you were to take a map of the United States and look at it, on the left you would have California and on the right, you would have New York and Washington DC. Now, turn the map away from you as if you are showing somebody this map. You now have New York and Washington DC on the left and California on the right. Think of these two locations: New York and DC are analytics, numbers, Wall Street, Alpha, Beta, legislation, analytics, objective, etc. This part of the country takes deep thinking! Conversely, on the “Right Side” of your forward-facing map you have Beverly Hills, Hollywood, etc. These places are fun, exciting, stories, movies, random, intuitive, etc. This is how our brain works. Left brain analytical processing versus right brain emotional processing.

Now, there are other books that explain our thinking a little differently and more neurologically in depth. For example, the book Your Money and Your Brain by Jason Zweig explains the brain as being less about left and right and more about up and down. In other words, the analytical part of the brain is the Cerebral Cortex on the top front part of your brain. And the emotional part of your brain is in the core, called the Basal Ganglia. This definition of how we think I believe is probably more precise because he backs it with MRI research where the patients are given emotional and analytical tests while their brain activity is monitored by MRI data. Regardless, the brain is broken down into two areas—analytical and emotional. So regardless of which definition is right (left, right, up, down) one thing that is undisputed is we think in two different ways, analytical and emotional.

Emotional Wins Every Time!
As I have been witnessing the presidential debates not just this year but also four years ago, I have observed a very interesting correlation, or lack thereof, that I thought I would write about.

First off, I believe that you cannot be a complete idiot and make it to be a top candidate for the leader of the free world, whether on the Democratic side or Republican side. I think it is likely that almost everybody that makes it to the debate stage probably has an IQ beyond the average American. Furthermore, you will often see a candidate or two that are among the smartest minds in the country, maybe even the world. As a matter of fact, on the Democratic side, at the beginning of the election season 9 of the 14 candidates attended an Ivy League school, eight have law degrees, and two are Rhodes scholars. On the Republican side, going back to the 2016 campaign, you had a doctor that was the first ever to separate conjoined twins—Ben Carson. I don’t know about you, but to me that seems like an intimidating task!

Here is the correlation, or lack thereof: How far did those analytical left-brain skills get them? I have not seen any correlation in how book smart one is relative to the other candidates and their likelihood of winning.

All the democrats are losing to Bernie Sanders (at the time of this writing). And going back to the 2016 Republican debate, we all know that all the republicans lost to Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders has very little formal education relative to some of the others. The same would apply to Donald Trump.

My point is, the direct correlation in this litmus test is those that become successful are those that also communicate in an “emotional/right brained” fashion. And—needless to say—Trump and Sanders trigger various emotions with various people! The politicians that win are able to trigger the emotional right side of the brain better than any of the others.

These people that ultimately win can tell stories that compel people to act. Logic alone many times does not compel people to act. Think of some of the most memorable speeches coming from any presidential figure. Those speeches were emotionally charged, and many times have very little “analytical” significance. Now, I am not suggesting that academics are not important. Afterall, I would like to think that I study this business as much as anybody and believe in designations, etc. What I am suggesting is that it can be a moot point if you cannot get people to act. How we get people to act is by telling stories and opening that “inner eye” of emotions. Whether you love XYZ politician or hate him/her, make note of how they get people to act! Most of the time, they get votes because that politician has hit a hot button.

Have Conviction in Your Recommendation
Unrelated to any of the candidates today, I will pose this question that I have recently been reminded of in my own dealings with a client. The question is: If a politician stood up on stage and gave their ideas without 100 percent conviction, would you get behind that person? If that politician said, “I think my tax plan could possibly create a good amount of wealth for the American people but the actual amount I am not sure of,” would anybody get behind that? No!

On the political stage those that have the best recommendation as well as the strongest conviction around how that recommendation will work will be the more successful. People can say what they want about Trump or Sanders, but lacking in conviction is not what anybody would explain them as.

Like in politics, the more confident we as professionals are in making recommendations, the more the client will buy.

Now it is time to be a little self-deprecating and tell you about a recent experience I had. After 22 years in the business and understanding the common sense I just laid out in the previous paragraphs, I basically did the opposite of what I just explained. Thus, what prompted me to write this article.

I was meeting with a nice lady that was 83 years old. I liked her and she liked me, and she trusted me at this point. This was our second meeting and I was showing her two different options for her $200,000 that she had sitting in a low yielding CD. She was very small and very petite but also very healthy. However, she was concerned that her $200,000 was not earning anything in interest. She also understood the long term care risk and was somewhat concerned about it. All her siblings had gone into a nursing home and it was almost a certainty that she would end up there. She had longevity in her family as well as “morbidity” in her family.

To address her concerns I formulated two different options for her. The first option was that she could continue to grow her assets like she had been doing, except in a guaranteed annuity that was giving her almost four percent for five years. This particular product was a very “low-friction“ sale because she wasn’t earning anything on her certificates of deposit. This was a no-brainer!

But, I also proposed to her a second option. That second option was a long term care annuity that immediately tripled her money for purposes of long term care coverage. This option increased her $200,000 to $600,000 with very little underwriting. The underwriting component was important because she could not qualify for the fully underwritten products.

Both were great options and when she looked at me and asked, “Which option should I go with?”, what did I say? In my attempt to be as gentle and low pressure as possible (which is how I work) I told her, “You cannot go wrong with either one and it is just a choice of more accumulation potential with the MYGA annuity or the high long term care amount with the long term care annuity. It is whatever you are comfortable with Mrs. Bailey.”

As she told me she would think about it and get back in touch with me next week, I immediately realized what I already knew! I lacked conviction in my recommendation. I am never “wishy washy” but this time I was and therefore I lost the sale (and rightfully so). More important than “the sale,” I lost the opportunity to help her out. She is still sitting in the CD that is not earning anything. I will help her eventually, but this was a learning experience.

Sometimes people just want to be told what to do and don’t like “wishy-washiness.” I knew this before and I went against it in order to not disenchant this nice lady. Well, I got exactly what I was trying to avoid.

So, whether you are a politician or a financial professional, if you are speaking to the emotions of your customers and doing so with sound recommendations that have conviction, your customers will vote for you with their trust.

IUL Illustrations Should Be About Education, Not Fluffery

Illustration Rocket Science

As I sit here, I am looking at an indexed universal life (IUL) insurance illustration that is 56 pages long. The “Tabular Detail Ledger” is eight columns wide.

To the untrained eye the details of an illustration can be very daunting to look at because…where does one start? It’s a very important stack of papers, but yet the risk of “analysis paralysis” is high when the agent or client looks at it. The agent may think, “Where do I start to explain the illustration? Do I discuss every single value, every single year? Why does one column increase while the other columns decrease? How are all of these numbers arrived at?” Etc.

And ever since I mentioned IUL illustrations about 20 seconds ago—depending on how fast you read—I know what has probably entered your mind as the elephant in the room. That elephant is the controversy around IUL illustrations and max illustration rates. To be clear, the “proper” illustrated rate to use is not a topic of this column. Nor is the recent product developments that have proliferated since the AG 49 regulations. I have already written on those topics and you can email me if you would like me to send you those past columns. Rather, this article is about using the illustration for educating the client on cash value life insurance, whether the illustrated rate is one percent or six percent.

My opinion is, we need to be able to explain the illustration contents to our clients effectively. After all, depending on the state the case is being sold in and the insurance company being used, the client is usually required to sign the illustration!

I am a believer in disclosing everything, but I am also a believer in being able to explain everything in a simple manner so the client understands everything. To me, the last thing an agent needs is for the client to completely disregard those pages and sign the illustration because it is just too daunting. To that end, if you have taken out a mortgage lately did you read all of the documentation that you signed? I didn’t think so.

So, over-disclosure and over-illustration can present a risk in that it can completely dissuade the client from even paying attention to the illustration when the client would have otherwise paid attention if the illustration were shorter. It’s a balance.

In the wake of a lot of controversy around unrealistic illustrations, I have had some folks suggest that the illustration should not even be a part of the sales conversation and almost suggest that by doing so the agent is acting in an unethical manner. That is going too far in my opinion. My response to that has always been this: “So you suggest that the client sign something that the agent did not even discuss?” In other words, if in most states with most companies the illustration is required to be a part of the sale, then I believe you cannot ignore the illustration.

Even if an illustration is not required, I am still a proponent of using them. The illustration is a visual representation of how the values act year after year, how the columns (Cash Value, Surrender Value, Death Benefit) react to withdrawals and loans, etc. It can be an educational tool if used correctly!

So, what if there was a roadmap as well as a method to explaining the illustration in a simple manner so the client can actually understand it? This may sound like a lofty task, but it can be done. Again, this is not about fluffery, this is about education.

The Most Common IUL Illustration is the Most Complicated
Many times, the most complicated illustrations can be those where the client wants to maximum-fund the policy over X years, then take tax-free loans out against the policy to supplement their retirement income. These types of illustrations are actually the most popular type that are run when IUL is being considered. As a matter of fact, Wink’s Sales and Market Reports quarter-by-quarter will tell you that 80 percent or so of IUL sales are of the accumulation design—versus other objectives like guaranteed death benefit, wealth transfer, etc.

So we are going to use a “max fund” scenario where accumulation then loans are illustrated. We will simplify this conversation into four very simple points. I will also educate on those points as we go through them. (Disclosure: The following demonstration is not all encompassing of the discussion of caps, spreads, expenses, etc. that should be incorporated into the agent’s conversation with the client.)

Scenario
We have Bill, a 45-year-old male in good health, who needs life insurance and has $10,000 per year to utilize for an IUL policy. He wants to maximum-fund this policy because 20 years from now, at retirement, he would like to begin taking loans against the policy as retirement income. With my favorite IUL we will assume a five percent illustration rate and solve for a loan amount that can be taken against the policy from age 65 until age 85.
Note: For this unnamed product, five percent is a conservative illustrated rate that is well below the AG49 rate. I use this number for two reasons: 1. I believe the illustration should be about explaining the policy, not hyperbole. 2. Because of the time value of money with these policies, even at five percent, these policies still work great in many scenarios!

In this scenario we chose an increasing death benefit (Option 2 Death Benefit) switching to level (Option 1) after the premiums are paid. This death benefit option will allow a lower face amount versus a level death benefit. What this does is it decreases the net amount at risk (death benefit minus cash value) in the policy which, in turn, reduces the cost of insurance charges. The face amount on this policy, per IRS regulations, is approximately $239,000.

Four Points on the Illustration
Illustration Point #1: The Seed
If the IUL is designed properly, one of the benefits of those retirement distributions (loans) is that they are potentially tax free to the client. Yes, the premium that Bill put into the policy has already been taxed, but, if the policy is set up correctly, the distributions are not. I like to say that with IUL you are paying taxes on the seed but not on the harvest.

The first of the four points on the illustration is to point out what the premium/seed is going into the policy—not just the annual premium/seed, but the total of those 20 premiums. In this scenario Bill would be putting in $10,000 per year, or $200,000 over the 20-year period until age 65.

The “seed” is the first point on the illustration to emphasize.

Now, what can Bill potentially get in return for that “seed” of $200,000?

Illustration Point #2: The Potential Harvest at Retirement
The second crucial point on the illustration is the year in which he would like to retire, which is typically age 65. In this year you want to discuss a couple different points:

  1. Death Benefit. What does the death benefit look like in that year of retirement before the loans begin? In this scenario Bill’s death benefit has increased to a little more than $546,000. This is a point that presents an opportunity to discuss why you illustrated an increasing death benefit—the fact that it decreases internal expenses in the policy and it also offers the ability for the death benefit to offset inflation.

2. Surrender Value. At age 65 Bill’s surrender value is $315,129. This warrants a discussion around the fact that he put in a “seed” of $200,000 and is able to, at that time, take out a “harvest” of $315,129. That is, assuming the illustration is 100 percent accurate—which it never will be.

This is where you discuss the fact that the illustration was assuming five percent, which is merely a projection and not guaranteed. Also, a conversation around the “guaranteed values” is important at this time. CG Financial Group provides agents with pieces on discussing the “Power of Indexing” and also the guaranteed columns.

As you discuss the “projected” $315,129 in surrender value in that retirement year, you can tell Bill at that point that he could request that money to be sent to him and the insurance company will send him a check. He could cash out that entire $315,129!

However, the check is not the only thing the insurance company will send out in this scenario. They will also send out a 1099 for the difference between what he put in (basis) and what he took out. Any time a life insurance policy dies before the client dies, it is taxed like an annuity! Thus, he would get a tax bill on $115,129 ($315,129 minus $200,0000) in income. Clearly, we do not want this. So, this is where you tell Bill how he can get access to that “harvest” without the 1099 coming. This is where you move on to point #3.

Illustration Point #3: The Loan Amount
In the first year of retirement for Bill (age 66) he can take loans against the policy of $26,218 in this example. As you point this number out you want to explain two different things to Bill:

  1. Again, the loan is typically not taxable. Why not? Because loans generally are not taxable! When he goes to the bank to get a mortgage or a loan those transactions are not taxable to Bill, correct? This situation is no different, assuming it is a non-MEC contract of course!

2. You projected the loans to run until age 85. If he wanted the loans illustrated longer—age 100 for example—you can run it that way as well.

When I am training agents, I like to point something else out: Have you ever been asked by the client, “Why do I have to take a loan from myself? That is my money I am taking out!” Here is my explanation which we have a separate tool for:

The client is not taking anything out of their policy. What is happening is the client is going to the insurance company and the insurance company is making a loan to the client, in this example to the tune of $26,218 per year. These loans are not much different than Wells Fargo giving the client a loan. However, how does the insurance company guarantee they would get their principal plus interest back should the client die or surrender the policy? This is where the insurance company collateralizes the surrender value (second column) and the death benefit (third column) of the client’s policy year by year as those annual loans are taken.

This is a very risk-free loan for the insurance company because the principal—plus interest—are fully protected by the policy. This is why you see the “Surrender Value” and “Death Benefit” columns on the illustration decreasing once loans are taken. Not because money has been taken out of the policy, but because a portion of the surrender value and death benefit is being used as collateral!

Furthermore, this is also why the accumulation value, also known as cash value, is not decreasing—because the client did not take one penny of their cash value out of the policy. The client merely got a loan from the insurance company and the insurance company used the surrender value and death benefit as collateral. Again, on the illustration the accumulation value usually continues to grow while the surrender value and death benefit decrease.

Illustration Point #4: Life Expectancy
Although Bill, as a 45-year-old male, has a life expectancy of slightly less than 80 (per the Social Security tables), I will generally use age 85 as a rough life expectancy for simplicity.

This is where I summarize everything. Here, I will reemphasize the fact that he would be putting in a “seed” of $200,000, but in exchange for that “seed” he would be allowed total loans over his lifetime that add up to $524,360 ($26,218 times 20 years) that will not be taxed. The illustrations will generally add these numbers up for you in five-year increments. I then point out that the $524,360 was not the total “harvest” the policy would have generated in our example. Why not? Because, if Bill happened to pass away in that year (age 85) there is also a death benefit that is passed on to the beneficiaries that is tax free. The death benefit in this scenario is $112,814.

So, in this scenario there is a total “harvest” generated from the insurance policy of $637,174 (total loans + death benefit) versus a “seed” of $200,000. Again, this is based on the projection of five percent, which is just that—a projection.

And that is how you discuss the illustration in a simplified manner.

Internal Rate of Return Reports
At this point in time, especially if the client is more on the analytical side, the client may want to discuss the costs in the policy. In other words, is putting in $200,000 into something that generates a value of $637,174 forty years later a good value? Unless the client is savvy with the cash flow functions on a financial calculator, that can be hard for them to quantify. This is where I like to utilize the Internal Rate of Return Report that usually can be included in the insurance company’s illustration.

To me, the IRR reports are invaluable when it comes to quantifying the value of the policy, and also in quantifying the expenses embedded in the policy. For instance, the IRR in this policy between the cash flow and the death benefit was a tax-free IRR of 5.55 percent.

In closing
At CG Financial Group we work with a lot of IUL agents and I personally do a decent amount of personal production with IUL. With that, I have an observation: I have never had a client say, “Charlie, the amount of the retirement distributions on your illustration are five dollars less than your competitor’s.” Never!

Again, it shouldn’t be about fluffing up the illustrations because these products just work! If the clients aren’t forcing us to illustrate higher rates, then why do we as an industry continue to wage illustration rate war?

The Problem With Bonds Today

For the longest time it was conventional thinking that a “balanced” portfolio was a 50/50 portfolio. That is, in the securities world it was widely recommended that a “balanced portfolio” had 50 percent of the portfolio in stocks and 50 percent of the portfolio in bonds. This meant that many times when there were research pieces or sales pieces put together by money management firms that discussed “retirement portfolios,” it was the 50/50 portfolio that was used in the analysis. The use of the 50/50 portfolio was—at least partially—promulgated by the William Bengen four percent withdrawal rule study that took place in 1994 that most of us are familiar with. If you are not, email me and I will send it to you.

The 50/50 portfolio looked good for a good chunk of the last four decades because for those entire four decades bonds have not only been “safe,” but they have done quite well from a return standpoint. They have done well because prevailing interest rates have declined steadily and persistently over that 40 years. For instance, in September of 1981 the 10-Year Treasury Bond was yielding 15.84 percent and since then the yield has steadily declined to where it is today—at less than three percent. Because of the “inverse relationship” between bond values and interest rates, this period meant an almost 40-year bull market in bonds.

Furthermore, much of the historic research on retirement portfolios cite the lack of correlation (or negative correlation) that bonds have had to stocks over the last X years. When equities zigged, bonds zagged. Throughout a good chunk of history bonds not only contributed (past tense) a decent return to the overall portfolio but they also provided a hedge in recessionary times. It is no wonder that many consumers have grown accustomed to having bonds represent the “safe portion” of their retirement portfolios.

Then, some time over the last decade, the pundits started discussing 60/40 portfolios—as in 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. Why the shift? Did the stock market get less risky over the last decade? Clearly I am being facetious here because although the last decade has been great in the stock market, we all know what happened the previous decade—it was chopped in half twice!

The reason for the shift to the 60/40 portfolio is because interest rates have gotten so low on bonds that a 50/50 portfolio looks very bad in the back-casting and the Monte Carlo models. So what did the pundits and money managers do in their sales literature and research pieces? They beefed up the stock side a little more to make up for the lousy yields consumers are receiving in the bond market today.

I understand that the conventional thinking of bonds representing the “safe part” of a portfolio is hard to buck, but if we know that bond yields are so lousy today that bonds seriously water down a portfolio, why aren’t the researchers looking at other options? Especially if we believe interest rates will increase eventually? Of course, I know the answer to that silly question as well. Because it is the money management firms that usually put out the research pieces! (Note: Folks like Roger Ibbotson have created great studies on bond alternatives.)

Let’s discuss the issue of rising interest rates for a second. Duration is a standard metric for bonds and bond mutual funds that measures the sensitivity of the price of the bond/bond fund to movements in interest rates. Typically, the duration of a bond/bond fund ranges from two years on short-term bond funds to 15 years on long-term bond funds. The chart above demonstrates the impact of rising rates given certain durations.

Example: If you are invested in a bond mutual fund with a duration of 10 and if rates increase by 1.5 percent, your fund will generally lose 15 percent of it’s value.

I am not the only one that questions the 60/40 rule. For example, I just got done reading an unnamed research piece by a very formidable bank that owns a very formidable wirehouse firm where they are stating that the “60/40 rule is dead.” One of the problems with the article is that they are suggesting the 40 percent bonds be replaced with vehicles like dividend stocks. Clearly, I agree with the fact that the bond math is getting very hard to justify, but ten years into a bull stock market and we are going to continue to suggest more equity exposure? Really?

It is interesting to me how today’s rules of thumb are tomorrow’s outdated misconceptions. When hindsight is 20/20, you have the tendency for “rules of thumb” and product development to revolve around how well that rule of thumb or product looks in hindsight. In other words, the rules of thumb and products many times are created as a result of the research on hindsight, instead of the other way around. This is flawed because the next crisis is always different than the last crisis that can make the previous assumptions and “rules of thumb” irrelevant.

I can think of a product that I would recommend for the fixed income side of the portfolio. Can you guess what it is?

The Cold Hard Truth About Being Successful In Financial Services

In 1835 there was a significant development in the firearms industry. This was the year a gentleman named Sam Colt received a patent on a handgun called the “Revolver.” Although there were previous versions of the revolver, they were rare. Sam Colt’s design would be the first one to get mass produced. This innovation was groundbreaking, as now one could fire five shots (later to become six shots) just as fast as one could pull the hammer back then subsequently pull the trigger.

This was in great contrast to the “single shot” designs that were widely available prior to this creation. By the mid to late 19th century this handgun was the standard for good guys and bad guys alike. With this innovation came the old west adage that “God created men and Sam Colt made them equal.” In other words, it didn’t matter how big or tough you were. If somebody else had a Colt, you were inferior to them. Or, if you both had a Colt, you were equal. They called the Colt Revolver “The Great Equalizer.”

Fast forward to today–a much more commercialized world where we are very much driven to be high performers at our jobs. I believe we have a new “equalizer” that can be a limiter on your performance relative to your competitors. And I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to be inferior to my competitors!

What is the new “equalizer?” It is the 8:00 to 5:00 work schedule that somebody, somewhere institutionalized.

Let me discuss my “belief” by using a hypothetical example. Today, two people graduate from college at age 22 and enter financial services as insurance agents. These two individuals will each go through their careers and, like clockwork, will start work every day at 8:00 am and end the day at 5:00 pm for the next 43 years until they both retire. My belief is that their career trajectories would not diverge a significant amount. I will concede that one may be smarter than the other and one may be naturally more efficient than the other during that nine hour workday, but I don’t believe you would see a situation where one of those people would be making huge amounts of money by age 65 and the other would be destitute. Why? Because if we are all in the same profession, like being an insurance agent, we all are doing basically the same thing between those hours. It is the treadmill of phone calls, prospecting, client meetings, putting out fires, etc.

Again, one may say, “But what if one person was just a pure genius and the other was not the sharpest tool in the shed?” I would argue, as Angela Duckworth does in her bestselling book Grit, that IQ is secondary. I do not believe that our maker can create one person that is so far superior to another that the difference cannot be offset by hard work. As a matter of fact, in some of Duckworth’s studies she found that in some cases she has seen a negative correlation between how smart people are based on IQ and how successful they turn out to be in certain functions like national spelling bees, college graduation, etc. This is because the “smart people” may rest on their laurels while those that do not have natural talent work to offset their shortcomings through hard work and perseverance—i.e. grit! And in the end the person with the grit usually wins. Duckworth defines grit as “perseverance and passion for long-term goals.”

I have worked with and observed thousands of financial professionals over the last 20 years. As I have interacted with these financial professionals, I have always had a curious eye about what makes the top echelon so successful.

I have found that there are many inconsistencies in the activities, qualities and traits from top agent to top agent. Some do seminars, some don’t. Some know their product inside out and some don’t. Some are analytical, some aren’t. However, there is one consistent common activity among the top echelon. Take note: I am calling this an “activity” not a trait. The fact that this is an activity is great because “activities” can be controlled by you if you decide to adopt them!

What do they do that ensures that their paths “diverge” from their peers? Grit! They cheat the “great equalizer” of the 8:00 to 5:00 work schedule. They wake up early. They don’t buy into the 8:00 to 5:00 work schedule. They make their days have more hours in them so they are not “equalized” with their competitors.

I purposely call “grit” an activity because—as I tell my 12-year-old basketball player son—this is not something you need to be born with; it is a decision that is 100 percent in your control. Do you want to be great or do you want to “blend in?”

My challenge to you would be the same challenge that I have given to thousands of people over the years to whom I have spoken on this topic. I will tell you as I told them—if I am wrong, call me up six months from now and tell me that I was way off and I am full of it. I have not received any calls yet other than calls confirming my belief. My challenge would be to start by just setting your alarm clock 30 minutes earlier in the morning. If you do this I can promise you that you will feel as though those 30 minutes were much more meaningful than just 30 minutes.

Those 30 minutes—this is your time. I wake up at 4:30 every morning, and for three hours or so I have uninterrupted time to read and catch up on emails that the “treadmill” of the 8:00 to 5:00 workday will not allow me to do. I believe that if you are going to “cheat” the 8:00 to 5:00 work schedule it is best to do it in the morning—because the morning hours are your hours!

I know this message is much different than the messages one may hear from “efficiency consultants” or infomercials that you may see at 3:00 am. Many times, those messages suggest that there is some brainy secret ingredient that allows one to evade the hard work and the grinding that our business requires. These messages are usually something like, “Work less but work more efficiently.” Or, “Be a millionaire by only working 20-hour weeks.” Or my favorite, “Work smarter, not harder.”

To be very facetious, although I am in no shape to play professional football, I think I am going to try out for the Patriots next year. When Bill Belichick asks me what the heck I am thinking, I will tell him that although I have not worked to have the athletic ability that the other team members have, I will just work “smarter” than the others. Let’s see how that works. It will last one play until I get hit by some beast who grinded away his whole life to achieve a low four second 40-yard dash time and a 500-pound bench-press.

Whether it’s athletics or business, the rules are the same!

Please note that I am a family man. I spend every second with my family that I can, and I make it meaningful. I am not suggesting that work should cannibalize your life. What I am suggesting however is that if you want to reach the top echelon as a professional it is a grind. The great news is that it’s a choice that you can make and, if you make that choice, your success is guaranteed.

In discussing the power of long work hours and grit I would like to share a personal story. I grew up in a small town in Southwest Iowa. I was always a head taller than the other kids in my grade, but I didn’t even touch a basketball prior to the seventh grade as my family was not much of a “sports family.” Therefore I never had much of an interest in basketball even though many of my friends loved it. Plus, I never had natural athletic talent like many of my friends. I was very uncoordinated and could barely walk and chew gum without tripping when I was young and growing fast.

My lack of desire changed one day, however, when I was in seventh grade. It took one person, Coach Hook, who was our varsity basketball coach, to light a fire of “grit” under me. By the way, Coach Hook was known in Southwest Iowa as a coach that had a long history of building some of the best basketball teams in the state by investing time in his kids year after year.

Well, that day he ran into me while I was outside the middle school waiting for the bus. He took an immediate interest in how tall I was relative to the other kids. He then started speaking with me about how I could be a great basketball player and he wanted to see me work to be a star by the time I came into high school. He continued these conversations with me every time he saw me and eventually convinced me that I could be a good player if I wanted to be.

As I worked to get better at basketball I remember looking up to some of the “stars” that were juniors and seniors on the varsity team of that time. I remember thinking about them and wondering how much practice it took them to get to the skill level they achieved. Did it take 50,000 practice shots? Did it take 100,000 practice shots? Did it take a million practice shots? Then I remember thinking that whatever that number was, it didn’t matter because I would pass that immediately. In other words, I would “accelerate” the development process by relentlessly practicing every chance I got so that I would not be “as good” as those people by my senior year—I would be better than them by my sophomore year. This was a cool thing because the number of “practice shots” I took every day was 100 percent in my control. Day after day it was my choice how much I practiced and thus how quickly I would surpass the number of hours that those “stars” had ever practiced.

At our house we had a very primitive basketball hoop where the pole that held the backboard was basically just “buried” in the gravel driveway. That was my basketball court, a gravel driveway. Many nights under the flood light that hung from our garage I would stay up until the morning hours practicing as my hands became coated in dirt and gravel dust. Sure enough, by my sophomore year in high school I was starting Varsity and was all conference for three of my four years in high school and ultimately went on to play in college.

To me those years were confirmation that, although I was an uncoordinated seventh grader relative to my peers, there were no shortcomings that could not be offset by hard work. The mindset for the rest of my life was formed in those years!

In other words, we are all humans and therefore we cannot be created that much different than one another. The difference is grit, practice and perseverance. These three things are a choice–not something one needs to be born with.

To wrap this up: We work in a great business that deserves effort beyond what the “average” business requires. The national median income for an entire household today is around $60,000. I would argue that in our business we have the ability to make much more than what the “median” household makes. And what does the “median person” do? They go to work at 8:00 and come home at 5:00. They don’t touch a book. They sleep in on the weekends. They “work smarter, not harder.”

Do you fall victim to “the great equalizer” and go to work at eight and come home at five? Or, do you accelerate the process of developing your talents, developing your book of business, developing your team, etc., by getting up early and leveraging “Grit”?

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.”—Calvin Coolidge

Low Interest Rates: The New Normal

Yield Compression

It’s not breaking news that life insurance carriers (and everybody else) have seen 37 years of dropping yields on bonds. At the time of this writing, the Moody’s Baa Corporate Bond Yield sits right at 3.91 percent, which is more than 100 basis points lower than at the beginning of the year! I believe that the Baa yield is the best proxy for insurance company investments because insurance carriers predominantly invest in investment grade corporate bonds versus treasury bonds. After all, if you can buy a bond from a strong investment grade company that yields 50—150 basis points over a treasury bond, why wouldn’t you? Furthermore, carriers generally invest more prominently in Baa type bonds than Aaa type bonds.

Because of these persistent low interest rates, insurance carriers have been forced to reprice their annuity and life insurance products many times over. This is because of the resulting decreases in general account yields. To put numbers to it: At the end of 2007 the aggregate yield that U.S. life insurance companies were getting on their fixed income assets – which is usually what backs life and annuity products – was 6.1 percent. Well, based off the 2018 ACLI Life Insurers Fact Book, that yield in 2017 (10 years later) had dropped to 4.43 percent. Thus, it is no mystery why caps on IUL have decreased. Furthermore, I don’t believe the pain is over yet for two primary reasons.

  1. As the bonds that the carriers bought, say, 15 years ago mature and are replaced by new lower yielding bonds, the companies’ general account yields will continue to get watered down. Here is a simplified example of what I am talking about: If an insurance company’s general account has a “blended yield” of 4.43 percent and this year has $20 million in bonds from 15 years ago that are maturing, they must reinvest that $20 million in today’s low rate environment. The yield on the bonds that are maturing could very easily have been seven percent. It does not take a mathematician to understand that unless you replace those seven percent bonds with seven percent or greater bonds, the general account yield is going to continue to be watered down. So, interest rates could actually rise from here and it still would not stop the yield compression for insurance carriers.
  2. There are 17 trillion reasons why I don’t believe rates will increase soon. When there is $17 trillion in sovereign debt globally that is yielding negative, that means that here in the United States we are actually in a “relatively” high interest rate environment. That creates demand for our U.S. bonds which increases the prices. That price increase on bonds, in turn, suppresses the yields. As a result, my opinion is that U.S. interest rates cannot change course unless interest rates around the globe change course, which can take a significant amount of time! However, if a crisis happens it could be that “risk premiums” on corporate bonds increase—but I am not hoping for a crisis.

By the way, the federal reserve does not control long-term rates with the fed funds rate! The federal funds rate only controls the short end of the yield curve. Market forces control the 10-year, 20-year, 30-year treasuries, etc. Now, the federal reserve could (and has) affect the long end of the yield curve by their quantitative easing or tightening, but that is different than the federal funds rate.

Yield Compression=Lower Caps, Higher Term/GUL Rates, Lower Dividends
For the fun of it, let’s do some IUL pricing based off the 2007 general account yield of 6.1 percent and compare that to today.

Let’s assume our General Account is yielding the 6.1 percent. As we discussed previously, this was the case in 2007.

Let’s also assume we are pricing a cap on an annual reset S&P 500 strategy within an IUL. Assuming a $10,000 net premium going into the IUL, how much money would need to be invested in those general account bonds so the $10,000 grows back to the original $10,000, based off the yield of 6.1 percent? The answer is $9,425. In other words, when the $9,425 grows by 6.1 percent over the next year, the insurance company will have the client’s premium back which is the goal! This means we have $575 ($10,000 minus $9,425) as an options budget. What does the insurance company do with that $575?

Not to get too technical but the company buys a S&P 500 call option “at the money” and sells an S&P 500 call option “out of the money.” The difference between what the carrier bought the option for and sold the other one for should equal $575. Based off today’s options prices, an “at the money call” would cost the carrier $747—which is more than our option budget. Too bad because if we had enough option budget for this call, we would have an IUL with unlimited upside, i.e. no cap. So, instead, we will buy that option and sell another one so we net-out to our $575 budget.

In order to capture our $172 ($747 minus $575), we need to sell a call for “out of the money” by about 11.5 percent (based on today’s prices). What we have just done is given the upside beyond 11.5 percent to somebody else! Voila! If it were 2007, our IUL product would have a cap of 11.5 percent.

What about today? It’s a big difference. Based on the math that uses 4.43 percent as a general account yield, we would only have a cap of 7.5 percent!

Now, you may be thinking, “But many IUL products are currently offering caps much higher than 7.5 percent!” You are right and this concern is addressed in a couple of my points below.

What are my points?
Point 1: The pressure that insurance carriers are feeling is real! Insurance companies are faced with a 37-year dropping interest rate environment and as a result they have been forced to adjust the pricing on policies as well as discontinue products. Not because they wanted to, but because they have had to.

Point 2. It is paramount that an agent is working with a carrier that knows what they are doing and how to hedge these products.

Point 3: If you are an agent, do your due diligence and partner with an IMO that knows how these products work and knows the carriers involved! These products are technical and therefore you should partner with technical people! Ask your IMO to “stress test” various products.

Point 4: Know that there are ways that a carrier can subsidize the option budgets with internal charges to give the product more upside than a 7.5 percent cap. Of course, additional expenses do come with additional risk. Thus, the importance of the “stress test.”

Point 5: If internal charges in the policy are extremely low and caps seem too good to be true, ask questions!

Point 6: Although I used IUL as an example above, know that dropping general account yields are not just an IUL problem, this is a term problem (increasing prices), this is a GUL problem (increasing prices), this is a whole life problem (decreasing dividends), etc.

Point 7: Good carriers will separate themselves from the bad over the coming years in how they treat the consumers with the caps, rates, dividends, etc.

Point 8: Don’t just disclose to the clients that caps can decrease on their policy. Set the expectation that they will! Underpromise and overdeliver.

Point 9: Needless to say, be prudent with illustration assumptions.

The silver lining:
The silver lining is that there will eventually be a point of “equilibrium” where the general accounts no longer yield more than the new investments put into the general account. I am hoping we are close to that point as the Moody’s Baa yield is not too much lower than the average general account yield. In the end, the value of all these products is relative to what else is out there and the value is still unquestionable. After all, prevailing interest rates have also dropped the rates of savings accounts, certificates of deposit, money market accounts, etc.

In Closing
The magic that these products provide, whether life insurance or annuities, lies in the mortality and longevity credits. With life insurance, if one dies prematurely there are thousands of other insureds in the insurance pool that pay for the death benefit of the deceased that could equal multiples of the premium the insured paid. Ben Feldman would discuss that with life insurance you can purchase “dollars with pennies.” With annuities you have the inverse: If you live until the ripe old age of 110, those in the “pool” that passed away early bought the “longevity credits” that guarantee you lifetime income. Mortality and longevity credits are what make these products special. By the way, the potential tax benefits of life insurance and annuities are kind of nice as well!

Me, Shaquille O’Neal And Steph Curry

A couple decades ago (and about 50 pounds ago) I was a good basketball player. And by “good” I am not suggesting NBA “good,” I am suggesting high school all-state “good.” I was lean, had a good vertical jump and could run a mile in less than five minutes. Notice how I am speaking very much in past tense! Anyway, at 6’6″ and being able to move very well, I had a good combination. You are probably now wondering why I mention this in the context of Shaq and Steph Curry? Well, not only am I a fan of the two, you can often find me looking through a Steph Curry Jersey buying guide, but I have some interesting comparisons to make, so I will get there.

Here was my issue: The hoop could have been the size of the Grand Canyon, but if I was shooting beyond the three-point line, it was not going in! That didn’t matter to me, however, because each of us five players on the team had our own positions that we played and our own sectors on the floor that we favored. We played where we dominated! If past the three-point line I was airballing and if down-low I was dunking on people, where do you think I played 99 percent of the time? This logic does not take a championship-winning NCAA coach to figure out. Putting it simply, if someone was going to be betting on one of these US Sportsbooks, then there bet probably should have been placed on me making the most dunks by full-time.

So to my point and analogy, I view financial products as very analogous to basketball positions. You have some products that are great accumulation products for younger people that have 20-30 years until retirement. If one wants eight percent-plus returns, mutual funds, stocks, and ETFs have the ability to do this. Afterall, over the last 90 years the stock market has done well at hitting the three-pointers, as the S&P 500 with dividends has averaged around 10 percent. As the baby boomers saved for retirement in the stock market, they have done well in general by relying on the point guards (mutual funds, stocks, etc.) to shoot the three-pointers. However, with the oldest baby boomer now eight years into retirement and the youngest baby boomer only 10 years out from retirement, the ball needs to be passed to Shaquille O’Neal down low to win the retirement income game.

My analogy is that mutual funds, stocks, etc., may be great three-point shooting guards but annuities are great centers that play down low.

When I say that the capabilities annuities have in providing retirement income are just as unique as Shaquille O’Neal’s ability to dunk over people, I don’t believe I am exaggerating and here is why.

To step back a minute: This week I attended a meeting on structured products where I shared the stage with a lot of smart people that discussed structured notes, structured CDs and, of course, indexed annuities. A lot of people there were actuaries from insurance companies or quants from investment banks. The investment banks were in attendance because it is they who insurance carriers buy the call options/put options from in order to hedge indexed annuities and structured variable annuities. These investment banks also create indices that can be used in indexed annuity products instead of just the traditional S&P 500 index. Of course, we have seen a proliferation of these new indices within indexed annuities. Very smart people were at this meeting talking about indexed products!

Anyway, one of the speakers there was an individual that oversaw the retail insurance arm of one of these large investment banks and he discussed the prominence of indexed annuities with their field force. If you are already shocked by this, so was I! As you can probably concur, this investment bank’s “field force” I would think of as traditionally being the “stock jockey” types. Well, this individual said that within his arm of the company-which was the annuity and insurance arm-that 30 percent of his sales were now indexed annuities. Ten years ago who would have thought that a big investment bank would even bother to approve indexed annuities for sale, let alone have 30 percent of their insurance business be indexed annuities! Who would have thought that these products would have a very prominent position within these big Wall Street-type firms? By the way, their “insurance business” also included variable annuities which used to dominate the annuity game.

What was the reason his field force had really begun to embrace indexed annuities? Here is verbatim what he said:

“We have realized that indexed annuities with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit riders provide levels of guaranteed income that cannot be replicated in the capital markets.”
-Anonymous Investment Banking Guy

What he is referring to is what I have been saying for years-no investment firm can copy what our products do!

Financial advisors/securities reps-which I am one of-have traditionally discussed the “William Bengen four percent withdrawal rule of thumb.” That is, a retiree should take no more than four percent from their stock/bond portfolios at retirement in order to not run out of money in their retirement years. Well, conversely, with indexed annuities there are GLWBs that can guarantee five to six percent withdrawal rates for a 65-year-old. He is right-this cannot be replicated! It is only insurance companies and the magic of the “pooling” that insurance companies utilize that can allow annuities to stand out from mutual funds, stocks, bonds, etc. These longevity credits can only be “replicated” by the pooling that insurance companies do! Investment companies cannot do this. To explain the “pooling” that he is alluding to, here is a simplified story from a prominent retirement expert:

“There were five 95-year-old ladies sitting around the table playing bingo. One of the 95-year-old ladies looked up and said “This is very boring! We have been doing this for 30 years and it’s time to try something new. Let’s all put $100 on the table right now and whoever is still alive a year from now will be able to split the entire $500 pool.” They all agreed it sounded like fun so they each threw $100 on the table. One year goes by and the mortality tables show us that there are only four of those 96-year-olds still alive. One of them unfortunately passed away. What does this mean? This means that each of those four 96-year-olds get $125 at that point in time, which is $500 divided up four different ways. It wasn’t even invested in anything over that year but they each got a 25 percent return on their money!” -Moshe Milevsky

Now, I am not suggesting that annuities or these “longevity credits” will give 25 percent returns. It is the concept that those that pass away early pay for those that live too long via these “longevity credits.” This is the inverse of life insurance and this is what makes annuities irreplaceable, just like how life insurance is irreplaceable with what it does. Nobody would ever argue against the logic of life insurance so why do many-like Ken Fisher-argue against the logic of annuities?

The biggest wealth transition in the history of our country-$30 to $40 Trillion-is taking place. By “wealth transition” I am referring to the amount of money going from pre-retirement to post retirement. The ball is now being passed down low and there is one product that dominates this like Shaq-annuities. The fact that annuities are so unique compared to anything else out there is what we really need to educate consumers to as an industry. If the game has now turned into a game that needs to be played “down low,” then annuities are Shaquille O’Neal.

In today’s low interest rate environment, I like many of the volatility-controlled strategies that are being created that add to the accumulation story of indexed annuities. There is great value in these strategies that allow savers to possibly get higher returns. However, these products are not designed to outperform the stock market, just like you will never see Shaq in a three-point contest with Steph Curry.

So again, we as an industry need to educate about exactly where it is that annuities cannot be replicated, and it is not the “X percent potential return” story. Rather, it is how annuities can provide this irreplaceable value of longevity credits. If we can provide more education on these longevity credits, we can overcome the “ambiguity aversion” that exists among many consumers as well as some financial professionals!

The game has changed, and it is now a “down-low game.” That is, it is now a retirement income game. And fortunately, that is the game where all the money is today!

Steph Curry should stay at the three-point line, Shaquille O’Neal should stay down low, and nowadays I will not get anywhere near a basketball court.

Annuity Round Table—September 2019

Q.Which products are currently seeing the most activity and which do you foresee having strong sales in 2020?

Douglass
Currently, our MYGs are very popular. First, the interest rates are attractive for today’s market. Secondly, they are short term, in hopes of interest rates increasing.

Gipple
Which products we are currently seeing the most activity with kind of ebbs and flows week after week with the behavior of the stock market and the mentalities of consumers. However, overall, the elephant in the room for us is in what we refer to as the “income soon” category. That is, indexed annuities with a rider attached that is designed to provide guaranteed income starting within five years. I would say about 75 percent of the products that we illustrate and sell are in the indexed annuity “income soon” category. Occasionally however, when the stock market gets crazy, we will see a spike in indexed annuities that have strong accumulation potential such as higher caps or a good volatility controlled strategy. MYGAs also spike in times of turmoil. For example, in the rough stock market of Q4, 2018, MYGA sales industry-wide were up over 80 percent from the same quarter in 2017. But again, overall, it is the “income soon” category. The relatively new “structured variable annuities” that share the traits of indexed annuities have grown as well within the securities distribution. These products make a great bond alternative.

What will sell in 2020? I think a lot of the same. I think the fixed annuity business in general will continue to be strong even though we will continue to have regulatory developments at the state level that could get interesting. Annuities just have a great tailwind, which is the baby boomers—who own 60 percent of our country’s wealth—retiring. I also believe that the equities markets will be rocky in 2020 for various domestic and global reasons. As a result, accumulation focused indexed annuities and also MYGAs will sell. Within the securities distribution, “structured variable annuities” will continue to grow. And of course, the aforementioned demographics will allow the sales of indexed annuities with GLWBs to continue to grow. Regardless of market conditions, annuities provide these baby boomers with something they cannot get elsewhere—longevity credits. And the value of longevity credits is huge whether markets are rough or smooth.

Q.Which consumer markets/demographics are currently purchasing annuities, and what product types?

Douglass
The market for MYG annuities has always focused on an older demographic. I would consider 50 and above as our key market. However, the indexed annuity can appeal to all ages with upside potential.

Gipple
I often discuss a spectrum that spans the 20 year period that starts 10 years before retirement and goes to 10 years after retirement. This is the 20 year spectrum of the common annuity purchasers. On the young end of this spectrum (Ages 50-55) you have variable annuities. Then as you progress down the spectrum and get close to retirement, you have clients buying FIAs or VAs with GLWBs. After retirement you have accumulation focused FIAs and also MYGAs as alternatives to bank-type conservative products. I would say the typical client has at least a few hundred thousand dollars in investable assets and—based on industry averages—buys an annuity for $100,000—$150,000 (depending on annuity type). The multi-millionaires that don’t believe they will ever run out of money are still more interested in stocks/bonds/ETFs/REITS/etc. than they are annuities.

The next decade or so will be interesting because research shows that the 82 million people strong millennial population is more conservative than their parents ever were. This will lead the average issue age of annuities to decrease.

Q.Where do you project interest rates going in the coming year and what effect do you see that having on the sales of various product types?

Douglass
With return of higher interest rates, all guarantee-based product’s appeal would greatly increase. MYGs and indexed annuities would enjoy higher caps or growth potential.

Gipple
I think there are 15 trillion reasons that interest rates will remain low for a while. That is, of the $100 trillion global bond market, $15 trillion is currently yielding negative! This means that our bonds in the U.S. will continue to be demanded by global investors which will keep our bond prices high, which puts downward pressure on yields. I also believe that a rocky stock market will continue to bolster demand for “safe haven” assets like U.S. Treasury Bonds, which will also put downward pressure on rates. I just hope there is somewhat of an offset to those lower rates by corporate credit spreads increasing. After all, it is mostly corporate bonds (versus treasuries) that insurance carriers purchase.

I think regardless of what interest rates do, fixed annuities as a whole and also structured variable annuities will continue to grow. Why? Because it’s all a relativity game right? In other words, if caps on indexed annuities, for example, go to three percent, that would probably mean that certificate of deposit rates go to almost nothing. With the low rates continuing, you will also see a continuation in the development of the volatility controlled strategies that have proliferated in recent years.

Q.What product features and/or riders are fueling sales in the fixed indexed and variable annuity markets?

Douglass
Product features like upfront bonuses have fueled sales in annuity products, fixed or variable. The increase in allowable annual withdrawals up to 15 percent of the accumulated value is also an attractive feature.

Gipple
In the fixed annuity world, everything is increasing. As of Q1 of 2019, fixed annuity sales were 38 percent higher than Q1, 2018, and every category (Book Value, MYGA, FIA, SPIA, DIA) had increased from a year earlier by double digits.

The VA world is different. As a matter of fact, as of Q1, 2018, the fixed annuity market had experienced more sales than the VA market for 11 of the preceding 13 quarters. What a flip-flop from a decade ago! Also, VA sales in Q1, 2019, were down almost 10 percent versus Q1, 2018. Again, however, it is not all goom and dloom with VAs as structured variable annuities are really growing. But, at only $12 billion in 2018 sales, it is still a small component of the overall $230 billion annuity market.

Q.Are you seeing an increase in younger producers? What might be done to attract younger generations to annuity sales?

Douglass
The increase in interest rates would attract younger brokers to enter the profession seeking higher potential for sales. Another big factor would be the need for wealthy individuals to seek advisors which would provide more lead potential and increase sales opportunities. The revision of estate laws and tax structure would fuel the market. Our products need to solve a need for our clients. Annuity and life products provide security and peace of mind, including income potential for the future.

Gipple
My organization works with many younger producers but I cannot say I have seen an “increase” in their presence. To me, attracting young producers is all about education, training and professional development. However, educating young producers may be unattractive to some carriers and IMOs because this makes for a very long time from bringing the agent aboard to actually getting revenue from their sales. I am 41 years old and have another 20—30 years to go, so I am not as concerned about short term sales as I am about building a sustainable practice with professionals, young or “seasoned.” If an IMO either has an educational curriculum or has a carrier that provides a “template” educational curriculum, that—along with a few other things—would go a long way in attracting younger folks. Also, as I alluded to earlier, I believe that the “flight to conservatism” with younger investors may make annuities more “cool” than how they have been perceived historically—like how cool stocks and bonds were in the 90’s. My column in this month’s magazine elaborates a little more on bringing in “new blood.”

Fishermen Wanted

The Pond That Had Never Been Fished

When I was about 12 years old and my brother was 10 my dad took us fishing at an old farm pond just north of Atlantic, IA-the small community in southwest Iowa where I was born. Of course, as I’ve written about in the past, this was a weekend ritual with my dad in the summertime just as hunting was the weekend ritual in the wintertime. Anyway, an old farmer my dad was friends with let us use his pond that was adjacent to a smaller pond. As we drove into the pasture in the pickup truck, we passed by the smaller pond that looked like it had never been fished before because it appeared to be lacking in opportunities. We went straight to the big pond where–over the next hour or so-we drowned a few worms without any bites. As a 12-year-old fidgety kid, I got impatient! As we were sitting there, I asked my dad if I could walk 100 yards or so to the other pond and try it. He said, “Go ahead, but you won’t catch anything.”

I walked over to the other pond, put a worm on my hook, and let it fly. As soon as that bobber hit the water it went straight under like a submarine! I was shocked as I wrestled to shore the biggest Bull Head that I have ever seen in my life. As soon as I pulled it out of the water, I began to run across the pasture to tell my dad and brother that I hit the motherload. Envision a 12-year old kid running across a pasture wearing a giant smile lugging a fishing pole that was about to break because of the giant fish swinging on the end. By the time I got to my dad and brother at the other pond they already had their stuff packed because they heard my commotion and knew I struck gold. They were already heading in my direction. An hour later we had an entire stringer filled up with about 40 fish. I am not exaggerating when I say that our bobbers were sinking as soon as they hit the water. These fish must have been on top of each other! I don’t know the science behind the abundance of fish in this pond, but one can certainly attribute a part of it to the fact that nobody had ever fished it. It may also have been the case because the pond was well protected and the Pond filter was regularly maintained. Or maybe there were other factors that helped the fishes in breeding abundantly! If only I had been an avid reader of fishing tips, advice, and news that you can find featured on websites like CatchandFillet.com and the many others found online, we might have hooked ourselves a lot more than just 40 or so fish!

A Lot of Fish and Retiring Fishermen
I think there is a similar opportunity today for new agents, carriers and agencies/IMOs. As we know, we are in the middle of the largest wealth transfer from pre-retirement into retirement in the history of our country. The baby boomer generation that controls $30 trillion in wealth is retiring and moving their money into IRAs, which we can help with. Eventually they will also transfer that wealth to the next generation, which we can also help with. To use my fishing analogy, the fish are multiplying by the day!

Furthermore, while you have this increasing demand for our services, what is happening to the “supply” of our services, or the supply of fisherman? As we know, the average agent is a baby boomer as well-at around 59 years old. A large chunk of them are and will continue to retire-leaving the fishing hole relatively free for the taking. I have seen several studies over the years-many of them by my friends at LIMRA-that cite 40,000 as the number of agents that need to be recruited per year to fill the gap that will be left by agents retiring. We have not been filling these vacancies and will continue to fall short unless we as an industry get our act together. Although this is a serious issue for our industry, it is the “motherload” for those agents coming into the business or those that will be in the business over the next decade or so!

What about technology filling this gap? Although technology is obviously a part of the research process for many consumers today, fortunately consumers still want to talk with a living, breathing human being before they actually purchase. Humans will still be in the mix!

Do a google search on “bringing new agents into insurance.” See what you come up with. You will find nothing profound outside of the typical “The average agent is almost 60 years old; selling insurance is hard; carriers need to embrace technology; etc.” There is not much out there because this is a hard problem to solve. Well, as I tell my kids, the beauty of things that are hard is that your competitors likely cannot do them-which means if you do them, the potential rewards are high.

How do we as IMOs and carriers attract new people into our business? Although one can write a novel on this, here are ten of my thoughts.

  1. Be a Cheerleader: We need to continue to be cheerleaders for our industry and scream from the mountain tops the huge opportunities that exist for our recruits- because the fish are multiplying and we need more fisherman! Quantify the opportunities for these recruits! Our business is tough because we are selling something that is not immediately apparent like a beautiful new car or a shiny new Harley Davidson. By quantifying the opportunity you are putting them in the moment of enjoyment.
  2. Look to the Millennials: Although at CG Financial Group a bulk of our production is from agents in the Baby Boomer category, we are also putting a significant focus on the millennials, which I define as roughly 22 to 39 years old. This is an 83 million strong group of talented people that are the largest working age group in the U.S. today. Research shows that this group is more conservative than their parents were when they were that age. They are a great audience for the “protection products” we represent. Also, millennials love the flexible hours and the work/life balance that can come along with being an agent. And again, this is a bright, technology savvy generation.
  3. Agent Education, Training and Professional Development: This is a big one for me. As we know, the “feeding system” of the career companies that used to train the agents that later enter the indy distribution is not the same as it has been in the prior decades. Per LIMRA, the number of “affiliated agents” has declined by more than 40 percent over the past 40 years. Many carriers have embraced independent distribution to cut the costs of having the agents as employees. At the same time, our products have gotten more complicated, the tax code is now 75,000 pages long, regulation is vast, and consumers’ mindsets are more complicated than ever before! New agents need help!

    This means us leaders (agencies/IMOs/carriers) in independent distribution need to fill the function of education, training and professional development. You don’t just give a kid a fishing pole and have him learn himself! This can be difficult because training, education and professional development take a long-term view versus a quarter-by-quarter view. However, you enjoy the shade today because you planted a tree 10 years ago.

    Some carriers and IMOs have great training material but, like anything we buy in life, the packaging is almost as important as the product itself. As I say, “At McDonalds nobody ever buys the Bic Mac. They always buy the #1.” If a carrier or IMO developed a comprehensive training system that is packaged in a way that can be “turnkey” replicated by an agency for use with their newly recruited agents, that carrier or IMO would come closer to cracking the code. More coming from CG Financial Group on this “turnkey system.”
  4. Education to the Client: This doesn’t necessarily pertain to recruiting agents, but it does pertain to keeping agents. As we know, 90 percent of agents that come into the business will not last in the business. Help them last by educating them on how to educate their prospects.

    In the annual Insurance Barometer Studies that LIMRA and Life Happens conduct, they often cite the lack of enough life insurance coverage being very correlated with the lack of knowledge consumers have of life insurance. In other words, the more educated the consumer is about the need and benefit of the products, the more coverage they have! I would argue this correlation exists regardless of the products being sold. Help the agents with the educational content as well as the media to use in educating their clients.
  5. Social Media: To my previous point about the “media to use.” Social media is today’s equivalent of direct mail in the 1980s and 1990s. Social media is used by 85 percent of U.S. consumers as a whole and over 90 percent of millennials. Whether it is recruiting new agents or educating consumers, social media should be a top focus. Believe it or not, many of the agents and agencies working with CG Financial Group began with the social media relationship.

    For consumers, the below quote tells the story:
    “There are more than 42 million consumers in the market for financial guidance. About two-thirds of those using social-media sites for finance-related topics are looking for information on product and services (62 percent), or looking for reviews on financial professionals (61 percent). Consumers, predominantly Gen X and Millennials, are using social media when assessing financial professionals; 34 percent say they would research financial professionals on social platforms.”-www.Lifehappens.org.
  6. Video: This is well known to all of us in the industry; Video works! All my first five points above should incorporate video. When it comes to “cheerleading” for our industry, use video. When it comes to education, use video. When it comes to social media, use video.

    A thought on video: If you have seen my videos, they are casual! Sometimes I am in a T-shirt after working out. This is because I have learned after creating thousands of videos that there is almost a negative correlation in how “polished” I am and the level of viewership. People are human and it is natural for humans to cringe at a stuffy looking person giving a stuffy message. Don’t get slowed down by feeling that your videos must be perfect!
  7. Group Benefits: Some carriers have contracts that allow for group health benefits to the agents, even though those agents are not W2 employees. For obvious reasons this is a valuable benefit for agents coming into the business!
  8. Mentoring: If you are an IMO and have staff that are recruiting new agents into the business, it may make sense to have a mentor assigned to those new agents should that new agent so elect. That mentor would be somebody like their marketer (or whatever the title is). This mentorship program may include bi-daily calls between the agent and their “mentor” as well as many other things. That mentor should be held accountable for activity with the agents that they are mentoring.
  9. Persistence with Social Media: Social media is a beast that can defy gravity at times. Not just because they incorporate human behavior but also because there are algorithms in all the platforms that can boost your viewership. These algorithms I won’t go into, but I will say it is all about being consistent and persistent. For example, some days I will post something that I think is quite profound and only get 1,000 views. Another day I may post something that I think is nothing great but it gets 15,000 views. Example: One day I posted something I thought was fairly irrelevant to the audience. It was me just discussing how I got back my Series 7 after letting it go years back. Who cares, right? Well I got 130,000 views and probably 200 new contact requests because of that post. And many of those new contacts were reps that I later recruited! Be persistent and do not get discouraged.
  10. Believe in Karma
    If you are doing the right thing and trying to help the agents and their clients you will eventually win. If you have a mindset of “abundance” and share openly, you will win. The “Abundance Mindset” is what Stephen Covey talks about when he says that you should share openly with others and there are enough “fish” to go around.

    Something funny as I look back at the fishing trip I mentioned at the beginning, is what happened a couple of hours into our fishing spree. An old farmer that my dad knew was driving his tractor down the gravel road. This gravel road was within shouting distance of the water’s edge where we were sitting. That farmer stopped to yell a few pleasantries to my dad. As you can imagine, the farmer asked “the question” that usually requires a thoughtful response from fisherman that are protective of their fishing hole. The farmer asked, “Are you catching any?” If you knew my dad, you could guess his answer: “Nope, just drowning a lot of worms.” As a naïve 12-year-old I was confused about why my dad said that-he should’ve been proud of what we just caught! He should also let that farmer know about the huge opportunity that exists! I spoke up and said “What do you mean dad? We caught a lot of fish!” And I pulled our stringer up out of the water to display what we just caught. I later learned from my dad that unless you want other fishermen to catch your fish, you never tell them how good your fishing hole is.

    Well, 78 million baby boomers and $30 trillion in wealth equals more fish than any of us can catch-and therefore we need more fishermen. So, don’t follow the advice of my dad-display your stringer proudly! Tell these new recruits about the amount of fish in this pond that you will give them access to if they join your agency/IMO/carrier. The opportunity has never been greater. Have an abundance mindset and you will win.

Don’t Assume Your Clients Understand Life Insurance

Last year I decided to buy my two sons (8 and 11 years old) and myself motocross dirt bikes. My intention was to find us another hobby that we could enjoy together. I grew up around dirt bikes but never did the motocross thing. Anyway, I bought us all the helmets, boots, pads, braces, etc. and we were going to be hardcore motocrossers! I vividly remember the first day where I loaded up the dirt bikes and took my kids an hour north of Des Moines to a Motocross track where we were going to christen the bikes. I have never seen a motocross track up close prior to this. Well, I remember pulling into the track drive, which was still empty early Saturday morning. I remember getting out to get a closer look at the track while my sons stayed in the truck. As I walked up the first dirt “jump” it seemed big…really big! As I was standing at the top of this mountain looking around, my 8-year-old opens his car door and yells from the truck, “Daddy, are we supposed to ramp that?” I said, “Not today Matthew.” Then we rode the little trails behind the track all day and had a blast!

At the end of the day we watched other riders, that looked to be high schoolers, effortlessly jump those “mountains” like it was muscle memory. The thought of getting to that point seemed impossible last year. Well, we are there!

The parallel is that the way we talk in our business is muscle memory to us just like jumping terraces is to pro motocross riders. If you have been in the business for a long time, what you know and the language you use is now ingrained in your DNA. Therefore, it can be very easy to overlook the lack of understanding that the general population has concerning our products. I am sure a year ago those young high school kids could not fathom why I would not even consider jumping a 15-foot terrace.

In that vein, I want to focus on a few questions/objections around cash value life insurance that I have recently heard from consumers. If you have been in the business for a long time, you have likely heard these questions/objections and likely effortlessly know the answers. Like the kid that effortlessly jumps the terraces. However, many times it is not just knowing the answer but knowing how to respond so the consumer actually understands the answer. Don’t overestimate what the general population knows!

Question/Objection #1: “How is the life insurance cash value non-taxable?”
This is a great question from consumers that do not fully understand cash value life insurance. To answer this question, I usually use the following verbiage to explain this:

Let’s say you pay premiums of $1,000 per year into an IUL or whole life policy. In year 20, and after paying $20,000 in premiums, the cash value has grown to $30,000. How can you gain access to that $30,000? One way is to cash it out. You can simply ask the insurance company for your money back and the insurance company will gladly send you the check. However, that is not the only thing that will be sent to you. A 1099 will also come that will lead to income taxation on the $10,000 you took out above and beyond what you put in. Conversely, if you do not want that 1099 to come, what can you do? Take a loan against the policy. There is a reason that financial professionals discuss policy loans rather than “withdrawals” when they discuss accessing policy cash values. This is because loans are not taxable and withdrawals above basis are! When was the last time you went to get an auto loan and received a 1099 on the amount you got from that bank? Never. Somewhere in the 75,000 pages of IRS Tax Code it says that policy loans are not taxed assuming the policy is not what they call a MEC.

(By the way, to be technical, it’s Section 7702A that says loans are not treated as distributions under Section 72.)

Almost every time, my response above will lead to the second question…

Question/Objection #2: “But that’s my money! Why do I have to take a loan from myself?”
This is where I discuss with the client that, first of all, she wants it to be a loan! Why does she want it to be a loan? Because of the tax advantages we just discussed. Second, it is not a loan “from herself” or “from her policy.” The loan is actually from the insurance company, just like a loan from the bank. However, the hoops that a bank would make her jump through in order to get a loan are non-existent with these policy loans. These loans are contractually guaranteed to be available to her without loan applications, credit reports, W2s, etc. This is because the policy loan is a very safe loan for the insurance company to make, even without all the formalities. Why is it a safe loan? Because that insurance company collateralizes the death benefit in case she were to pass away without paying back the loan. Also, the insurance company would collateralize the surrender value in case she doesn’t pay back the loan and wants to cash out her policy. Therefore on the illustration you will see that the cash value is never reduced when loans are taken. The only values that are reduced on the ledger when loans are taken are the surrender value and the death benefit. That is because of the “lien” assessed against those two values.

When you start thinking of a life insurance company (where the loans come from) as a completely separate entity from the insurance policy (where the client’s cash value is), one’s understanding of life insurance loans becomes a lot easier.

Objection #3: “I don’t trust insurance companies.”
Here is an interesting one… Not long ago I was having dinner with a friend of mine (John) where we were discussing everything we should not discuss—religion, politics and money. He is my age—a very youthful 41 years old—and owns a very successful construction business. He is the epitome of the American Dream and a self-made man. He never went to college, but since he was a teenager he understood that if he worked his tail off he would be rewarded. That has come true for him!

He is a good friend but very set in his ways and has some biases against the financial services business. By the way, my dad owned a construction business while I was growing up, so I have witnessed some of this “anti-white-collar bias” that exists with some blue-collar professionals like my dad and like my friend John.

Anyway, somewhere in the conversation I started discussing how he should look at a cash value life insurance policy, not only for the death benefit but also the ability to take loans against the policy tax-free for his kids’ college or his retirement. I expanded on the concept by laying out what the math on my personal policy looks like as I am the exact same age as he. After he asked for clarification on the loans and the tax status on the loans (as mentioned previously in this article) John indicated that he did not trust insurance companies as they are all out for making a big profit. He also made the statement that the insurance carrier will likely “jack up” the rate charged on everybody’s loans so they can make a “huuuuge” profit. At this point I dusted off my participating whole life bat, because he just threw a hanging curve over the middle of the plate for me!

I then asked John, “So let’s say the insurance carrier jacks your loan rate up to the maximum rate in order to get more profit. Who gets that profit?” He said, “The shareholders/owners get the profit which is the main objective with any corporation—not just insurance companies!” I said, “You are right! But what if you were one of the owners of the company? What if that massive profit that these insurance companies supposedly get were partially paid to you as a dividend because you are one of the owners?” He paused at this point because he was confused. I continued, “So by being an owner, not only do you vote on the Board of Directors for the company, you also get to participate in the profits that may be generated by what the insurance company does with your money and that of a million other policyholders.” After a long pause he says, “How do I do this without buying shares in the company?” I said, “What I just explained to you is how a participating whole life policy works where the policyholders are the owners of the company. You are the insured, you are your own lender, you are an owner of the company, and you also vote on the Board of Directors that run the company.”

I will be meeting with John next week to show him his own illustration that he requested.

As an IUL fanatic, I will say that I also love participating whole life insurance. To me, one is not better than the other; it is a function of where on the risk/return spectrum the client is. Riding the trails is not any better or any worse than riding the motocross track. It is all about what the client is comfortable with.